Packers (4-0, 1st in NFC North) at Falcons (2-2, 3rd in NFC South)
If anything can be gleaned from the imploding Philadelphia Eagles so far this season, it should be that Championships cannot be bought, borrowed or bartered. In the NFL, the worlds most competitive professional sports league, championship caliber programs mature slowly and consistently like 30 year old whisky. This Sunday, the Green Bay Packers (think Michael Collins single malt) square off against the Atlanta Falcons, a franchise who traded grandma's top shelf brandy for Jack Daniels.
After posting a 2010 league best thirteen regular season wins and then losing horribly to the Packers at home in the playoffs, Atlanta's front office thought a Superbowl was just a deep threat away. In the 2011 draft, the Falcons mortgaged the future, dumping the 27th, 59th, and 124th picks, and trading their first and fourth round picks in 2012 (Ted Thompson just had a heart attack). In return, they received just one player: Alabama's WR, Julio Jones, and granted him a $16 million 100% guaranteed contract (followed by a stroke).
Jones has great size at 6-3, 220lbs and speed (4.35 40yd) but is he really worth five players? Last week he posted great numbers against Seattle (11 for 127yds) but four games in and the end zone still proves elusive. When the farm is sold, it better result in points!
Furthermore, if QB Matt Ryan has little time to throw, WRs become meaningless (why do franchises always forget about the fat kids?). Ryan (28 for 42, 291yds, 1TD vs Sea) was sacked 13 times in the first three games this year. As a result, he jumps nervously in the pocket, dumps off the football too early instead of stretching the field to speedy Jones or beastly Roddy White, and misses open targets far too often (tough to do when your TE is Tony Gonzalez).
Atlanta's offense throws back to the era before Manning and Brady, when the run set up the pass, not vice versa. Versus Seattle, they ran the ball 36 times and dominated time of possession 40 minutes to 20 (and yet still almost lost). Since 2008, the Falcons have the most drives of 10 plays or more that resulted in touchdowns (52) in the league. Atlanta wont score like the Packers, but will limit opponents scoring with clock management and ball control.
Bruising running back Michael Turner (5-10, 247lbs) allows this strategy to succeed with his impressive combination of size and speed. Turner still is running hard for 29, but his 4.8 yards per carry is deceptive. Without long runs of 53 and 61 yards, Turner would be averaging just 2.9 yards per carry, much less than his career average of 4.5. With the loss of hard-nosed guard Harvey Dahl (St Louis in free agency) and injuries to center Todd McClure, Atlanta's front five is lacking the toughness of years past.
On defense, the Falcons added free agent DE Ray Edwards to line up with hot headed John Abraham (he's the douchebag that did the championship belt on a sack in the playoff game at Atlanta) and yet have created only five sacks in four games against sub-par offensive lines. Compare this to the performance of Atlanta's secondary versus Tavaris Jackson, who put up 319 yards and three touchdowns (honestly, how is he still in the league), and Aaron Rodgers looks to have another career day.
While Atlanta will be looking to protect their home field dome, Aaron Rodgers will be strapping on his favorite shoes and his already stellar receiving corps will look blinding on turf. Watch out for WR Jordy Nelson, who loves breaking down field on fake grass. If you think Randall Cobb looks fast already, just wait until he gets to sprint on rubber. Rodgers should pass for 300 yards or more, 3 TDs and take half as many hits as last week. Atlanta's offense will be playing from behind all day...sure, take 10 minutes to score, Rodgers will already be up 14.
Watch out, however, Atlanta, at 2-2 and at home, has a lot more at stake than the 4-0 Packers. The Falcons have to win this season if only to justify their win now Julio Jones attitude. Couple that with the Packers crushing playoff victory in Atlanta last season and emotions will be running high...
If there is one thing the media loves about professional sports, dramatic story lines supported by manufactured rivalries. The last time the Packers headed to Atlanta Aaron Rodgers lit them up, Tramon Williams embarassed Matt Ryan and most importantly, the Packers moved on to the NFC Championship (the Bears still suck). After the game, Rodgers felt slighted when Falcons players declared they still had the better team:
"I just think that some of the general comments that I heard that that game was kind of a fluke, maybe," Rodgers said in a teleconference Wednesday. "I would just say that I think you need to respect your opponents. We definitely respect the Falcons. ... I just felt like that maybe the respect level, just as far as those comments were concerned, maybe (wasn't) there at times."
The hatred between these two teams draws deeper than Aaron Rodgers and his constant quest for vengeance. BJ Raji accused the Falcons offensive line of cheap shots:
"One, that's how they're coached and two, lack of ability. Most OL, the better OL, don't have time for that -- they do (their) job between the whistles and when it is over with they go back to the huddle. These guys, on the other hand, take it to a whole different level. They just want to get you fired up and get you to retaliate and draw a cheap penalty, but it's tough to ignore it, but you have a chance to get them back and have to take advantage of it."
Emotion packed rematches on national tv captivate viewers, sell tickets, and generate ad revenue. However, emotion alone will not win football games. Just ask the Chicago Bears. Atlanta, Matt Ryan, and John Abraham are whining wanna-bes. The Packers, more talented and with superior coaching, will return to Atlanta and show how a championship franchise is built...
Packers win, 49-24.
Just for fun: Clay Matthews sacks Matt Ryan three times.
